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| #532045 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 05.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012 500 PM AST SUN AUG 05 2012 CONVECTION HAS FALLEN APART NEAR FLORENCE...WITH ONLY SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAINING. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING...AND THE WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 45 KT. DESPITE THE RECENT DECAY...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS HANGING ONTO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN RATHER MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE FORMER CLUSTER IS LOWER THAN BEFORE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND GENERALLY LIES NEAR OR BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...IT COULD HAPPEN A LOT SOONER. FLORENCE APPEARS TO BE MOVING NEARLY DUE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KT. THIS MOTION AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...AND IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.3N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 16.4N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 16.7N 41.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 17.2N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 17.8N 47.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 19.5N 54.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1800Z 21.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1800Z 24.5N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
