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| #53208 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 AM 23.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 CENTER FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT WILMA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...AROUND 045/03. A LARGE AND STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WILL CAUSE THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR WILMA TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SPREAD...WITH THE GFS BEING THE NORTHERNMOST AND NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE....AND THE NOGAPS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN. AIR FORCE RECON OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OF WILMA...WHICH WAS DISRUPTED DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER THE EYE IS STILL QUITE LARGE...ABOUT 65 N MI ACROSS...AND RAGGED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE HURRICANE EMERGED FROM NORTHEAST YUCATAN...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS BASED ON PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 91 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND SOME RESPECT FOR A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED ALONG A NNE-SSW AXIS WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THIS MAY BE A HARBINGER OF INCREASING SHEAR...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT WILMA'S INNER CORE WILL BE ABLE TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY REDEVELOP...AND THAT SOME RESTRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR TODAY. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR AS WILMA NEARS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... WHICH...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER LOWER-LEVEL AIR... WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING. SINCE THE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH WILMA IS QUITE STRONG...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE BY ABOUT 48 HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 22.1N 86.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 24.7N 83.3W 85 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 27.4N 79.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/0600Z 43.0N 66.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/0600Z 47.5N 59.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/0600Z 49.0N 49.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
