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| #532186 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 06.Aug.2012) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2012 CORRECTED INITIAL MOTION FROM 280 TO 275 DEGREES CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO TULUM. THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND CAYMAN * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER * THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO TULUM A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 80.5W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 80.5W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 80.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.4N 82.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.2N 84.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.1N 86.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.7N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.7N 92.2W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 19.0N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 80.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
