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| #532244 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 06.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM THIS MORNING FOUND THAT ERNESTO HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY POSITION. IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAS A RESULT OF A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS AND VISUAL ESTIMATES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED AND...NOW THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION... THERE IS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE...AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN UP TO LANDFALL. THIS IS IN REASONBALE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE HWRF MODEL. WITH THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/8. ALTHOUGH THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED...THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 15.8N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 16.2N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 16.8N 84.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 17.5N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 18.2N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 19.0N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 19.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
