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| #532351 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 06.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 82.7W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS * NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER * NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY EVENING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES... 205 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
