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| #532399 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 07.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012 ...ERNESTO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 83.9W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM E OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM NORTHWARD TO CANCUN WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS * NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER * FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
