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| #532401 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:23 AM 07.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012 THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AROUND THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT THAT DEPARTED THE CYCLONE A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO REPORTED PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 55 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 55 KT. ALTHOUGH ERNESTO STILL APPEARS TO BE HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH DRY AIR...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SSTS OF AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING AND BRINGS ERNESTO TO HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALTHOUGH THIS PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER LAND. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY...THEN TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE AND HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION AND HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 17.5N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 18.2N 85.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 18.8N 88.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1800Z 19.3N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0600Z 19.4N 92.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/0600Z 19.3N 96.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 19.0N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
