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| #532477 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:02 PM 07.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE CURRENT AND SHORT-TERM INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF PEAK BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR WINDS OF 75 KT AND SURFACE-ADJUSTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 66 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THEREFORE THE INITIAL...12 H...AND 24 H FORECAST POINTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. THE HURRICANE WARNING NOW INCLUDES COZUMEL...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY REPLACES THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1800Z 18.5N 85.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 19.0N 86.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 19.4N 89.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 19.4N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 09/1200Z 19.4N 93.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/1200Z 19.2N 96.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
