Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins on June 1st and lasts until Nov 30th. NHC Outlooks resume on May 15th..
|
Show Selection: |
| #532518 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 07.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012 ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX. GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL IN MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ERNESTO COULD REGENERATE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... THAT UNUSUAL EVENT IS NOT BEING PREDICTED AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES...THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...300/13...CONTINUES. DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH ERNESTO MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTER HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE NEW ECMWF TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.8N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 19.4N 88.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1800Z 19.7N 90.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 19.8N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 09/1800Z 19.8N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/1800Z 19.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
