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| #532521 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 07.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN TONIGHT...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 86.2W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * COZUMEL * COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA * CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
