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| #532571 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 07.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012 ...ERNESTO NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN YUCATAN AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 87.7W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO TUXPAN MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * COZUMEL * COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA DE NAUTLA TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA * CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED BY THE BELIZE DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST..OR OVER NORTHEREN BANCO CHINCHORRO ISLANDS MEXICO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. EARLIER REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE STORM SURGE FLOODING OF MORE THAN 2 FEET HAS OCCURRED ON AMBERGRIS CAYE ISLAND BELIZE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
