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| #532572 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 07.Aug.2012) TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO TUXPAN MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * COZUMEL * COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA DE NAUTLA TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA * CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 87.7W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 100SE 50SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 87.7W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 87.1W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.1N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.4N 91.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.4N 94.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.2N 95.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.7N 98.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 87.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
