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| #53261 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 23.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOST LIKELY HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 75 N MI FROM THE POSITION GIVEN IN THE ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM HAITI. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HISTORICALLY...IT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. BECAUSE THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE LOW SHEAR...WE ARE SHOWING A VERY MODEST STRENGTHENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BACK OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE WE DO NOT EXACTLY THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...BUT ALPHA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AND ALPHA IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF WILMA IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 19.2N 72.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 21.0N 73.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 29.0N 73.5W 30 KT...ABSORBED BY WILMA 48HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
