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| #532630 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 08.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 400 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012 RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE SHOW THAT ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AROUND THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL...AN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON BANCO CHINCHORRO ISLAND JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 979.4 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS MOVED WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN RADAR IMAGERY...AND THE LAST COUPLE OF GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE CLOUD TOPS WARMING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 60 KT. ERNESTO IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCA. ERNESTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES FINAL LANDFALL IN MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP MORE OF THE CIRCULATION OVER LAND AND COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. AFTER LANDFALL... RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF MEXICO. THE NEW TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST HAS REQUIRED SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 18.9N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1800Z 19.1N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 09/0600Z 19.2N 93.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 09/1800Z 19.1N 95.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 10/0600Z 18.8N 96.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0600Z 18.5N 99.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND 96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
