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| #532663 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:02 AM 08.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 700 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012 ...ERNESTO WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER MEXICO...BUT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 89.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE * CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO COATZACOALCOS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO * NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND THIS MORNING. RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND ERNESTO COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
