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| #532686 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 08.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1000 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012 ...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER MEXICO WHILE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 90.4W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO TULUM...CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A HURRICANE WATCH FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTALA TO TUXPAN. THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CELESTUN TO BARRA DE NAUTLA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY... EMERGE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
