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| #532799 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 08.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012 THE ROBUST CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO HAS FINALLY MOVED OVER THE WATERS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST NORTH OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO. INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED FROM INLAND AREAS TO OVER WATER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT AND SEVERAL RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 55-57 KT IN THAT AREA. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 30 NMI OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CYCLONE TO POSSIBLY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. ERNESTO IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...BUT NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT GETS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 18.8N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 18.7N 93.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 18.3N 95.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/1200Z 17.9N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/0000Z 17.6N 98.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND 72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
