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| #532819 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 09.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 100 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 93.0W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF PARAISO MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...1600 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA * EAST OF CHILITEPEC TO CAMPECHE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...NOW NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO...VERACRUZ...PUEBLA...AND NORTHERN OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THIS MORNING. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
