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| #532851 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 09.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 400 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO OVERNIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION...AROUND 0600 UTC...MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 86 KT. NORMALLY THIS WOULD EQUATE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS..BASED ON MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS OF 55-59 KT AND A STANDARD REDUCED MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND OF 58 KT FROM A DROPWINDSONDE...THAT THESE WINDS WERE NOT BEING EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. ERNESTO APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL... ERNESTO SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE AIRCRAFT FIXES AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS ACCELERATED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270 AT 14 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING SOME DECELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AND A BEND TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS ERNESTO NEARS THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL ENVELOPE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 18.7N 93.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 18.5N 95.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/0600Z 18.0N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/1800Z 17.7N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
