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| #532855 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 09.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 400 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO THIS MORNING...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 93.6W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA * EAST OF CHILITEPEC TO CAMPECHE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWEST MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THIS MORNING. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
