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| #532891 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 09.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1000 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS MOVING ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF COATZACOALCOS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL VERY WELL ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF MEXICO AND WILL PROBABLY INCREASE THE RAIN IN THE AREA. BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS. SINCE THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND AND A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH HIGH TERRAIN... WEAKENING IS FORECAST. ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. ERNESTO IS ALREADY TRAPPED SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA...AND THIS FLOW PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST TO WESTSOUTHWEST TRACK...BRINGING ERNESTO INLAND OVER MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IS A DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 18.2N 94.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.8N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1200Z 17.5N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
