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| #533046 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:15 PM 09.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 700 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012 ...ERNESTO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AS IT MOVES INLAND... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 95.8W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM W OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER WATER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
