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| #533083 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 09.Aug.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012 1100 PM AST THU AUG 09 2012 A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO BANDING FEATURES APPARENT. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE CLOSE TO NOAA BUOY 41041 OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER LOOK AT THE INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS LIGHT FOR NOW...THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE DEPRESSION ALWAYS SEEMS TO HAVE SOME NEGATIVE FACTORS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS NEAR THE CIRCULATION INITIALLY...WHICH IS PROBABLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACKLUSTER CONVECTION. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER WARMER WATERS...THE INSTABILITY SHOULD RISE...BUT THE SHEAR SHOULD ALSO INCREASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO A LARGE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THIS SHEAR IS LIKELY TO FURTHER INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SHOWING ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE DAY 4 AND 5 PREDICTIONS HAVE BEEN REDUCED GIVEN THE LIKELY PERSISTENCE OF THE SHEAR AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NON-DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 270/17. THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT TO A MORE WEST- NORTHWEST COURSE IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST...HOWEVER...STAYS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS JUST A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE... SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A SLOW AND POLEWARD BIAS WITH LOW-LATITUDE SYSTEMS IN THIS AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 13.7N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 13.6N 48.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 13.6N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 13.7N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 14.1N 58.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 14.9N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 16.0N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 17.0N 78.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
