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| #533084 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 09.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1000 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012 DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO OVER THE THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION AS ERNESTO IS STEERED A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. PLEASE SEE THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS POSSIBILITY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVEN AFTER ERNESTO DISSIPATES...AND THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 18.1N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 17.8N 98.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
