Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #533306 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 10.Aug.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012 500 PM AST FRI AUG 10 2012 DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS NOT IMPROVED. IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE ELONGATING...AND IT IS HARD TO TELL IF THE CENTER IS EVEN CLOSED ANYMORE. THE CYCLONE IS BEING KEPT AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE EVIDENCE APPEARS TO BE MOUNTING THAT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT TAKE PLACE. THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING INTO A HIGHER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SOON...AND THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO BEEN IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. GIVEN THE CURRENT FRAGILE STATE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS THAT LIE AHEAD... THE NEW NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THEN SHOWS DISSIPATION INTO A TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY DAY 3. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST...NOW WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 270/21 KT. A FAST WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY HAD BEEN...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THOSE TWO MODELS UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT THE DEPRESSION WILL EVEN BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. THE VARIOUS GOVERNMENTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO ISSUE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE ISLANDS...EVEN THOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WOULD REACH THOSE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 13.7N 51.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 13.9N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 14.2N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 14.5N 62.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 14.7N 66.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN |
