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| #53349 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 23.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE IF THERE WAS A SURFACE CIRCULATION OR NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION AFTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND I WAS TEMPTED TO DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A NEW AREA OF CIRCULAR CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF HAITI NEAR THE POSSIBLE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. WE ARE FOLLOWING THE CENTER OF THE CLOUD MASS WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS IN THE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF WILMA. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE CIRCULATION IS BACK OVER WATER...A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AND ALPHA COULD TEMPORARILY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...MOST LIKELY THE DEPRESSION WILL INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF WILMA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 20.6N 72.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 22.8N 73.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 26.0N 73.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 31.5N 71.0W 30 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED 48HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
