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| #53359 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:14 PM 23.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 WILMA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD HEADING...WITH CURRENT SPEED OF ABOUT 12 KT...AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE MOVING TWICE AS FAST BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES IS PROGRESSING TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING... AND IT SHOULD REACH THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. MEANWHILE AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DEEPEN AND ENHANCE THE WESTERLIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BRINGING WILMA OVER FLORIDA. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN EVEN TIGHTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE THE CENTER OF WILMA TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE TIMING. HOWEVER... THE SPEED OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. AS A RESULT... THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON WHERE WILMA WILL GO...IT REMAINS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD... AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN PROVIDING DATA FROM WILMA THIS AFTERNOON... AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FALLING... MOST RECENTLY TO 959 MB. GIVEN THE LOWERING PRESSURE... SFMR WINDS AS STRONG AS 87 KT... AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 100 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. IT APPEARS THAT WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UP UNTIL LANDFALL... AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL. RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LESS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE SIZE OF THE EYE AND A LACK OF TIME FOR IT TO CONTRACT BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER... SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT REVEAL ANY OBVIOUS SIGNS THAT THE SHEAR IS YET STRONG ENOUGH TO REVERSE THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND...AND IT MIGHT NOT INCREASE IN TIME TO INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS CATEGORY TWO...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 23.5N 84.9W 90 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 24.8N 83.2W 95 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 27.6N 79.3W 75 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 32.2N 74.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 38.5N 68.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 53.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/1800Z 50.0N 42.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
