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| #53392 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:58 PM 23.Oct.2005) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS IT GRADUALLY ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IMPACTING WESTERN CUBA AND APPROACHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM CDT...0000Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT... NOAA DOPPLER RADARS... AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 275 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 225 MILES... 365 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION... WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WILMA IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WELL BEFORE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL. DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY... AND WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE... STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND GUST TO 85 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN HAVANA CUBA... AND A GUST TO 55 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA... AND THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS BY MIDNIGHT... AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE KEYS AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 17 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE KEYS... THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB. HOURLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATES WILL BE ISSUED BEGINNING AT 9 PM EDT. THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
