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| #53443 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 23.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ALPHA REMAINS A BIT ELUSIVE SINCE EMERGING FROM HISPANIOLA EARLIER TODAY BUT IT IS ASSUMED TO BE WITHIN THE PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS YIELDS A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE NORTHWARD MOTION OF 360/18...CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WILMA. GIVEN THE RESILIENCE OF THIS CONVECTIVE AREA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND SHIP ZCDG8 WHICH RECENTLY REPORTED 29 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHALLENGING. ON ONE HAND...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THE CIRCULATION IS NOW COMPLETELY OVER WATER. ON THE OTHER HAND...GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE RAPIDLY OVERTAKEN BY AND WILL MERGE WITH THE EXPANDING CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THIS INTERACTIONS WILL BEGIN SOONER RATHER THAN LATER AND KEEPS ALPHA AS A DEPRESSION UNTIL IT BECOMES COMPLETELY ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF WILMA IN 24-36 HOURS. FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 22.5N 72.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 25.1N 72.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 29.4N 70.9W 30 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED 36HR VT 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY WILMA |
