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| #53544 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 24.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/20. SHIP PBIG 05Z WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND AND A PRESSURE OF 1006 MB LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER HELPED WITH DETERMINING THE POSITION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA FOR THIS ADVISORY. OTHER SURROUNDING SHIPS... ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY... INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ALPHA MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY MUCH LARGER HURRICANE WILMA AFTER 24 HOURS. UNTIL MERGER WITH WILMA OR DISSIPATION OCCURS... THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE NORTHWARD... ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SMALL DEPRESSION GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF HURRICANE WILMA'S CIRCULATION. LITTLE IF ANY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG OUTFLOW CREATED BY MAJOR HURRICANE WILMA. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SHIPS MODEL... WHICH BRINGS ALPHA UP TO 66 KT IN 84 HOURS... AND THE GFDL MODEL... WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 85 KT IN 24 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 24.4N 73.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 28.5N 72.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 34.7N 70.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE WILMA |
