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| #535626 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 20.Aug.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012 1100 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012 THE INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY IN THE AZORES PROVIDED A REPORT OF A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 980 MB ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN AZORES AS GORDON PASSED OVER THAT ISLAND THIS MORNING. A MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND OF 53 KT WITH A GUST TO 70 KT WAS OBSERVED AT SANTA MARIA AIRPORT. SINCE PASSING THE EASTERN AZORES...GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO LOSE ORGANIZATION...AND THE CENTER IS INCREASINGLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 55 KT... AND IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM SHORTLY BEFORE 1200 UTC. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR...COOL WATERS...AND UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. GORDON IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 060 DEGREES AT 14 KT. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN EASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 38.3N 22.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 39.0N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 21/1200Z 39.2N 18.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z 39.2N 17.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 39.0N 16.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
