|
Show Selection: |
| #53566 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 AM 24.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 IN SPITE OF ITS VERY LARGE RAGGED EYE...WILMA HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND BASED ON DOPPLER AND AIRCRAFT DATA...IT IS NOW A HIGH-END CAT. 3...110-KT...HURRICANE. AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE AS HIGH AS 135 KT EARLIER BUT DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THESE WINDS WERE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH TRANSIENT MESOSCALE FEATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INTENSE BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RECON AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION IS ABOUT 050/17. ACCELERATION IS FORECAST AS WILMA IS BECOMING CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVEMENTIONED TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST AND DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS THE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW WILMA WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGHER LATITUDE FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE NHC FORECAST TRACK HAVE BEEN MADE OVER THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. THE LATTER PART OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES WILMA INLAND IN A FEW HOURS. PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD BE MINDFUL THAT DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE STORM SURGES ARE OCCURRING WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 25.5N 82.4W 110 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 27.9N 79.0W 85 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 32.9N 73.1W 75 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 39.0N 66.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 26/0600Z 44.0N 60.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 27/0600Z 47.5N 51.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 28/0600Z 48.0N 40.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 29/0600Z 48.0N 29.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
