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| #535690 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 20.Aug.2012) TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012 500 PM AST MON AUG 20 2012 STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL WATERS HAVE CONTINUED TO TAKE A TOLL ON GORDON. DEEP CONVECTION IS NEARLY GONE...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS RESEMBLING THAT OF A FRONTAL CYCLONE...WITH THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AND MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT AND THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY BAROCLINIC REDEVELOPMENT. THE POST-TROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SEVERAL HUNDRED N MI WEST OF PORTUGAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 060 DEGREES AT 14 KT TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN EASTWARD TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 39.2N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 21/0600Z 39.6N 18.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1800Z 39.3N 17.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0600Z 38.7N 16.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
