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| #536224 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 22.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102012 1100 PM AST WED AUG 22 2012 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN HAS BEEN PRODUCING PULSES OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AT 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE CYCLONE IS STILL BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE ROAD AHEAD IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OBSTACLE COURSE. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT TOO FAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST...AND IT IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE IN SOME FASHION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EVEN AFTER THE DEPRESSION MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW ON DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE COULD THEN BE AFFECTED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC TO ITS WEST. THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE NEVER SHOWN MUCH STRENGTHENING WITH THIS CYCLONE...AND THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS HAVE COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...LYING JUST ABOVE THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THEN VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 295/15 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON DAY 3. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS THEN EXPECTED ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST ON THIS CYCLE BUT IS STILL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS THEREFORE BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS TRACK ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL ON DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.8N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.5N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 15.4N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 16.4N 46.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 17.6N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 21.0N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 25.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 30.0N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG |
