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| #536929 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 25.Aug.2012) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012 ...CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 76.0W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF * ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO * THE BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... * SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...5 TO 7 FT * FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT * SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT * HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT * THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
