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| #53695 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:12 AM 24.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF WILMA IS NOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH. HOWEVER...THE EYE REMAINS QUITE LARGE AND COMPLETELY INTACT... EVEN ON THE WEST OR BACK SIDE THAT IS STILL OVER THE PENINSULA. SOME INLAND AREAS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING A RELATIVE CALM PERIOD... BUT ONE THAT IS FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED DUE TO THE FAST NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 22 KT. WINDS IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL REMAIN JUST ABOUT AS STRONG AS ON THE EAST SIDE. NWS MIAMI WSR-88D RADAR VELOCITIES STILL INDICATE WINDS NEAR 120 KT AT ABOUT 5000 FT OVER LAND. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE PROBABLY STILL OCCURRING OVER WATER... AND THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 90 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT FLORIDA INDICATE THE SYSTEM REMAINS LARGE... AND NONE OF THE WARNINGS FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CAN YET BE DISCONTINUED. ONLY A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILMA SHOULD TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INTENSE BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ESSENTIALLY JUST UPDATES OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... EXCEPT TO SPEED UP THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO KEEP UP WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 26.9N 80.0W 90 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 30.3N 75.8W 85 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 36.1N 68.9W 70 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 42.1N 61.6W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 26/1200Z 44.9N 55.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 27/1200Z 46.5N 44.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 28/1200Z 47.5N 36.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 29/1200Z 49.0N 25.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
