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| #537000 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 25.Aug.2012) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012 ...ISAAC HEADING TOWARD THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 77.2W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO INDIAN PASS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR HAITI. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF * ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO * THE BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS TO INDIAN PASS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. ISAAC IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CUBA BY LATE SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE MONDAY IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... * SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...5 TO 7 FT * FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT * SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT * CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT * THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE |
