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| #5371 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 AM 16.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004 SATELLITE VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY...AND A 16/0953Z SSMI/I PASS DEPICT A 14 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH STRONG CONVECTION REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. THE SSMI/I PASS ALSO REVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL WAS MORE INTENSE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS CLOUD-FILLED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN AT T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 RESPECTIVELY...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS 315/15...AND AS EXPECTED...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH BY DAY 2 WITH A RECURVE TOWARD THE AZORES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST AN AGGRESSIVE WEAKENING TREND AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES BENEATH THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS...AFTERWARD REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED BEYOND THE 12 HOUR PERIOD AS DANIELLE MOVES BENEATH THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER ROBERTS/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 18.2N 37.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 19.5N 38.8W 85 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 21.8N 40.3W 80 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 24.1N 41.2W 75 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 26.6N 41.6W 70 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 30.5N 40.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 34.0N 37.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 37.0N 31.5W 40 KT |
