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| #537207 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 26.Aug.2012) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 200 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012 ...ISAAC HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 81.5W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF VILLA CLARA * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISAAC BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS IS DECREASING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 55 MPH...89 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT VIRGINIA KEY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CUBA BY LATE TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... * CRYSTAL RIVER THROUGH THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...4 TO 7 FT * SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...4 TO 6 FT * FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO SOUTH OF CRYSTAL RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT * SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT * CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT * THE BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. TORNADOES...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS |
