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| #538145 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 28.Aug.2012) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012 ...ISAAC PRODUCING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...FLOODING FROM RAINFALL TO FOLLOW... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 89.7W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO SABINE PASS TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA * MORGAN CITY TO SABINE PASS TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF SABINE PASS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA TONIGHT...AND MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH WAS OBSERVED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AT A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE SITE AT SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA. A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... * MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...6 TO 12 FT * ALABAMA...4 TO 8 FT * SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT * FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT * APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT * REMAINDER OF FLORIDA WEST COAST...1 TO 3 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE OF 10.3 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE AT SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA. A STORM SURGE OF 6.7 FEET WAS OBSERVED AT A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE IN WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. AT ABOUT THE 30TH STORY...WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE. RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...1200 AM CDT AND 200 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
