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| #538226 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 29.Aug.2012) TCDAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 400 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012 AFTER REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ISAAC MADE A SECOND LANDFALL NEAR PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS OPEN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE RADAR REFLECTIVITIES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME STRONGER OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT...BUT WEAKENING IS IMMINENT NOW THAT THE CENTER HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OVER LAND. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SOMEWHAT SLOWER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN THAT GIVEN BY THE INLAND DECAY MODEL DUE TO THE SWAMPY TERRAIN THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY BEGUN TO MOVE RECENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 300/7. ISAAC IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A MID-LEVEL ANTICYLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...ISAAC SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...POST-TROPICAL ISAAC SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THERE IS A CONTINUED THREAT OF FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AREA. NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGES INDICATE THAT STORM SURGE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 10 FEET ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THESE AREAS...WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 29.2N 90.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1800Z 29.7N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0600Z 30.5N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1800Z 31.8N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0600Z 33.6N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0600Z 37.5N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z 39.5N 90.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0600Z 40.5N 86.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS |
