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| #5384 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:28 PM 16.Aug.2004) TCMAT4 HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042004 2100Z MON AUG 16 2004 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 38.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 55NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 38.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 38.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.6N 39.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.7N 40.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.3N 41.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 28.5N 41.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 32.0N 40.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 34.5N 37.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 37.5N 32.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 38.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/LAWRENCE |
