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| #538495 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 29.Aug.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT INCREASE IS FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS ISAAC MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE THAT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD...THEN EASTWARD AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF WEAK MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WEST AT 48 AND 72 HOURS TO BE CLOSER TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE. RECENT WIND OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT 50 KT. THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER WATER. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND ISAAC SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THURSDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 30.3N 91.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 31.2N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/0000Z 32.8N 92.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/1200Z 34.9N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/0000Z 37.3N 93.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z 39.5N 91.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0000Z 40.0N 87.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0000Z 40.5N 83.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
