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| #5388 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 16.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004 METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A MORE ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A SMALL 10 NM IRREGULAR EYE. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA T-NUMBERS ARE 5.5...5.0...AND 5.0 RESPECTIVELY. THE ENHANCED BD CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATED A BRIEF PERIOD...ESSENTIALLY ON A SINGLE IMAGE FROM 18Z...WHERE A T-NUMBER OF 5.5 COULD HAVE BEEN DETERMINED. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT IMAGERY...90 KT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. INITIAL MOTION IS 330/16...WITH A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH BEYOND 36 HOURS WITH A RECURVE TOWARD THE AZORES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...SUGGESTING AN ABRUPT WEAKENING TREND AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES BENEATH THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THROUGH 24 HOURS AND BEYOND... REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE 15Z FORECAST. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS DANIELLE MOVES BENEATH THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER ROBERTS/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.7N 38.6W 90 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 21.6N 39.7W 85 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 23.7N 40.6W 80 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 26.3N 41.2W 75 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 28.5N 41.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 32.0N 40.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 34.5N 37.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 37.5N 32.0W 40 KT |
