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| #539033 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 31.Aug.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012 LESLIE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS CAUSING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THIS STRUCTURE IS CONFIRMED BY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SHOW THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH...SO THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 55 KT. THE SHEAR HAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT LESLIE LACKS ANY CENTRAL CORE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REDUCED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR LESLIE IN A FEW DAYS...THE POSITIONING OF LESLIE WITHIN THAT ANTICYCLONE APPEARS LESS FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY... WITH WESTERLY SHEAR POSSIBLE. THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS IS QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN A COUPLE MODEL CYCLES AGO...AND THIS TOOL HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER THIS YEAR. THE NEW FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS INTERPOLATED FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND RESULTS IN A REDUCTION TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15...A BIT FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. LESLIE REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK AS IT MOVES BENEATH A NARROW RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF HURRICANE KIRK. THE RIDGE BREAKS BETWEEN 60W-65W...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A LARGE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN A FEW DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED ON THE TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST UP TO THAT TIME. IT NOW APPEARS THAT LESLIE WILL MISS A TROUGH FORECAST TO DIVE OFFSHORE OF NORTH AMERICA...AND WILL BE CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS IN THE LONG RANGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AT THOSE TIMES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 16.2N 49.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 17.2N 51.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 18.5N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 19.6N 56.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 20.9N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 23.8N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 25.9N 62.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 27.0N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
