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| #539117 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 31.Aug.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 500 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012 THE STORM LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOWING THE CENTER BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED IN THE OVERCAST. INTENSITY ESTIMATES...HOWEVER...ARE UNCHANGED...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 55 KT. WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT-TO-MODERATE IN THE SHORT TERM...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THESE CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH MOVING WEST OF THE CENTER...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOW LESLIE ONLY AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM MODEL. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LESLIE FINDING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE LONG TERM...BUT ITS LIKELY SLOW MOTION AT THAT TIME COULD CAUSE UPWELLING UNDER THE STORM...SO THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES GIVES A GOOD INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/16. THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN MOST OF THE RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...PERHAPS INITIALLY DUE TO THE RIDGE BETWEEN KIRK AND LESLIE BEING A BIT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A FEW DAYS TIME...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE IS CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE OFFICIAL NHC PREDICTION IS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO COME CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS... ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF THE NEW FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 16.7N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 17.7N 53.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 18.9N 55.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 20.1N 58.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 21.5N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 24.1N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 26.0N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 27.0N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
