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Modeled CAG/TC with now 60% NHC odds within 7 days. Entire NW Carib & Gulf should monitor for potential hurricane development.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Francine) , Major: 387 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 46 (Debby) Major: 387 (Idalia)
 
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#539559 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:45 PM 02.Sep.2012)
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

...LESLIE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 61.3W
ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN