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| #539861 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 03.Sep.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 500 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012 SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF LESLIE RECENTLY...BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO LET UP MUCH FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...SO LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN THAT IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. LESLIE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND MOST OF THE DAY...AND THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. A LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/3. A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AS LESLIE REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD STEER LESLIE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER PACE. THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE WEST AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THERE IS NOW A WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AT DAY 5. THIS FORECAST LIES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCA AND TV15. DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE AND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION... LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON A 1340 UTC ASCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 24.0N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 24.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 25.3N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 25.8N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 26.3N 63.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 28.1N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
