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| #539946 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 03.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE NEAR OR JUST UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RATHER LINEAR BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION...SUGGESTIVE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AT 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS AND REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHERE THE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES IS FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE DEPRESSION. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS WHICH SHOW A CONSIDERABLE SOUTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT. THE ABRUPT INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO CAUSE WEAKENING... ESPECIALLY FOR A SMALL SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS ONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...CONSERVATIVELY SHOWING REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 3 DAYS. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/04. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND ERODES THE RIDGE FURTHER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AFTER THAT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HWRF MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 25.9N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 26.3N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 27.0N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 27.8N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 28.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 29.5N 44.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z 31.0N 44.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
