Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #540065 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 04.Sep.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2012 DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF LESLIE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL EVIDENCE OF ABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE NOW MORE RESEMBLES A CURVED BAND PATTERN. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO CAUSE THE CIRCULATION TO BE VERTICALLY TILTED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED ABOUT 30 N MI TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 55 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE POOR VERTICAL ALIGNMENT OF LESLIE AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH DURING THAT TIME. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AND THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN FOR LESLIE TO GAIN STRENGTH. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BETWEEN LGEM AND HWRF GUIDANCE. LESLIE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KT AND IS LOCATED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE STEERING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE LESLIE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THAT TIME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF LESLIE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO FIRST TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN 4 TO 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TV15 AND TVCA. DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF LESLIE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION... LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 25.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 25.5N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 26.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 26.5N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 26.8N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 27.5N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 29.2N 64.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 33.0N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/ZELINSKY |
